The 1st Biology 435 Midterm __ What Does Your Score Mean?

        A question on the mind of many of you is "Will the scores on the 1st midterm be curved"? A second, related, question is "What is the letter grade corresponding to my particular score"? The answer to both of these questions is that there's no sense curving the 1st midterm results or worrying about assigning a letter grade to your 1st midterm score, because so much of your grade is yet to be determined. However, I appreciate that you want to have some idea of where you stand at the present time.
        I believe the best way to give you the information you're seeking is to let you see how past students have done in terms of a final letter grade, based on their score on the 1st midterm exam. That's what the following table (based on data from my past eight Biology 435 courses) does for you:

                                Probability of Getting a Grade Of:
1st Midterm
Score
( % )
A
B
C
D
F
90-99 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
80-89 0.43 0.47 0.07 0.03 0.00
70-79 0.06 0.66 0.22 0.00 0.06
60-69 0.00 0.32 0.63 0.05 0.00
50-59 0.00 0.13 0.38 0.38 0.13
40-49 0.00 0.10 0.40 0.20 0.30
30-39 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.00 0.67
20-29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00

        This table tells you what you want to know. First, locate the range of your score on the 1st Midterm in the left-hand column. The numbers in the cells in the corresponding row to the right tell you how past students with your 1st Midterm exam score have fared in terms of a final letter grade. For example, look at the results for students receiving a grade between 70 and 79 on the 1st midterm. Reading across that row you can see that 6 % of those students went on to earn a final letter grade of "A" for the course, 66 % ended up receiving a "B", 22 % ended up with a "C", and 6 % failed the course. Similarly, of students receiving a score below 30, all ultimately failed the class (unless they dropped the course). Note that even if you received a grade in the 40-60 % range, there's still a a high probability that you could earn a "C" (or even a "B"!) at the end of the semester. That'll take some work, of course, but the odds are pretty good.
        Keep in mind that the entries in the table represent the average probability for the corresponding range of your score on the 1st Midterm, and if your score is toward the upper end of that range, your final grade probability should be adjusted upward. For example, suppose you got a score of 69% on this midterm. The table says your chance of getting a final grade of "B" is 32%. However, because your 68% is in the upper end of the 60 - 69% range, your actual chance of getting a "B" is somewhat higher, perhaps 50% (since 66% of students getting a score in the 70 - 79% range got a "B"). Likewise, if your score is near the bottom of a particular range, you should adjust your final grade probability downward somewhat.
        One thing you should be aware of is that I try my best to reward improvement during the semester. That is, if you did poorly on this exam but show steady improvement as the semester progresses, I will take that into account when I'm assigning final grades at the end of the semester.
        OK, where to go from here? Well, I'd suggest that you take a serious, honest look at your performance on the 1st midterm. If your grade was not as high as you'd like, you should honestly assess the reasons for that. If you hadn't studied as much as you needed to, that's something you can correct, and the letter-grade probability table shows that there's a very real chance that you'll be able to raise your grade by the end of the semester. On the other hand, if you really had studied long and hard for this exam, then it's unlikely that you'll be able to raise your grade significantly by semester's end.

        Needless to say, I will be happy to discuss all of this with you in person at any time.